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Russia withdraws troops from southern Ukraine. But nobody believes that fire will stop

Russian troops withdraw equipment from the Kiev direction and Chernihiv directions. In addition, soldiers are leaving the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and the city of Slavutych. We can see the movement of military columns towards Belarus. There are several versions of why this happened. None of the versions talk about peace.

Occupant casualties:
  • Sources close to the Kremlin say that Russia has stopped dumn attempts to take Kyiv. That’s why troops are withdrawn from this direction. But still they can turn away to Ukraine. There are two possible options – to surround Kharkiv or go to Donbass for regrouping. 
  • Russian troops in northern Ukraine suffered heavy losses, but failed to achieve significant success: Chernihiv and Kyiv remained Ukrainian, but small towns were destroyed. Military experts have repeatedly written that groups in the Kyiv region could be taken in the ring and completely destroyed, leaving the front without normal logistics. To save their troops, the commanders of teams decided to take them to Belarus for rotation and re-equipment.
  • The least likely option is the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. There have been reports on the Internet that soldiers based in the Exclusion Zone have been rushed to hospital with signs of radiation sickness: tanks have raised contaminated land. As a result, the personnel began to riot and demand to take them away from the danger zone.

Whatever the case, the Ministries of Defense of Ukraine, NATO, the United States and Britain agree on one thing: the withdrawal of troops is not a sign of possible peace. Russian tanks that were near Kyiv will continue to fire, just in another place.

Diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure, indicated in $, million:

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kyiv region:

  • Missile attack hit a multi-storey residential building and a fire broke out. One of the missiles was shot down by air defense, and fell in the Darnytskyi district.

Donetsk region:

  • Power lines were damaged as a result of the shelling.
  • First, an airstrike was launched, and then the settlements were fired from artillery.
  • Usage of prohibited phosphorus bombs in the residential sector. In Mar’inka, 11 civilians were wounded, including 4 children.

Kharkiv region:

  • As a result of the missile attack, the city council was destroyed, private houses and substations were damaged. Three people were injured.
  • 380 shellings during the day were recorded in the region and 47 shellings in the city. A fire brokeout due to damaging the gas pipeline at the Saltovka, 34 thousand subscribers were left without gas.

Dnipro region:

  • Rocket attack on the oil depot. Fuel storage tanks and buildings were significantly damaged, there was a fuel leak. The buildings of the gas station and two fuel trucks were also damaged by wreckage.
  • The missile hit the asphalt plant. Buildings and fuel oil storage tanks were significantly damaged.
  • The high-voltage line between Apostolove and Maryanske was damaged, as a result of shelling, Novosemenivka and the pumping & filtering station were de-energized, and water supply to Apostolove was cut off.
Chart with known air raid alerts by region and known damage as of March 30:

Khmelnytskyi region:

  • 2 missile strikes, presumably cruise, on industrial facilities.

Zhytomyr region:

  • Hladkovytska community – airstrike. Malynska community – artillery strike.

Luhansk region:

  • As a result of strikes with heavy weapons, multi-storey residential buildings were destroyed. The kindergarten building was  damaged. There are victims.
  • A family of 4 people was injured, 2 adults received gunshot fragmentation wounds. Their daughter (2020) has a gunshot wound of the abdominal cavity with intestinal eventration, gunshot shrapnel wounds of both lower extremities with damage to the bones and neurovascular bundles. Their son (2014) has multiple gunshot shrapnel wounds with reproduction of both feet and both legs. According to the doctors, it’s a high probability, that children will have both limbs amputated. The next day both children died. A bus that evacuated people was also fired out.
  • As a result of the missile strike, an oil refinery caught fire. Residential buildings were also damaged, several dozen people were injured.
  • As a result of the shelling the infrastructure was damaged, the school caught fire.

Chernihiv region:

  • 10 private houses were damaged, 3 more were destroyed. 7 civilians were injured, including 1 child.
  • Library, mall, houses, market. The city center was shelled. 
  • There were 7 shellings, which caused fires, during the day. Evacuation buses were fired, Bohdan Stefanyshyn, the husband of MP Olga Stefanyshyna, was  killed, also 4 more people were critically injured.

New laws

Ukraine:

  • The draft of the bill, which provides for 10 years in prison in case of crossing the border illegally after 24 February.
  • By decree of the President, instead of military-civilian administrations, a military administration was created in the following settlements: Avdiiivka, Vugledar, Maryinka, Ocheretyn, Svitlodar, Slovyansk, Toretsk. Separately, the Druzhkovska military administration was created. The heads of military-civilian administrations became heads of military administrations. According to the media, the military administration makes it possible to better manage communities.

Russia:

  • Deputy head of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia Alexander Shershukov proposed to reduce the working week to 4 days, which could help save jobs. Of the 55m officially employed citizens, as of March 30, 50k employees were laid off, which is 0.09%. According to estimates from job sites (hh.ru, SuperJob and Avito Work), unemployment in the Russian Federation from the beginning of 2022 may increase from 4.4% to 7% to the end of 2022.
  • Decree to defer for another 6 months the payment of taxes for 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 for a certain list of legal entities.
  • Since March 31, all purchases of foreign software for the critical infrastructure of the Russian Federation have been carried out with permission from the authorities. By January 1, 2025, government agencies must switch to the russian software.

Diagram of known Airstrike, missile and MRL damage and known child deaths:
War in Ukraine. Weekly digest of the key events