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Whether Russia will go deep into Ukraine depends on its success in the Donbas

U.S. intelligence says it expects three options for the development of the war in Ukraine right now.

The first is the least likely. Not having much success at the front and realizing that further war will have negative consequences for the country, Russia will decide to record its success and try to declare that its military goals have been achieved. And they really are: the land border in the Crimea and almost complete control of Luhansk and significant – Donetsk regions. They do not believe in this option, because Putin himself does not pretend that he wants the war to end.

The second is a long protracted war without much progress on either side. It will be a war of attrition that will take away significant resources in both Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the war will affect the economic and political situation around the world.

The third is the continuation of active hostilities in the east with the significant successes of the Russian army.

The latter scenario is dangerous for Ukraine. Intelligence believes that in this case, the Russian army, despite significant losses, will set itself the goal of advancing further into the country and will try to capture Mykolaiv and Odessa with further access to Transnistria.

US intelligence forecasts do not agree with what Ukrainian officials say: Ukraine will not make territorial concessions and will not sit at the negotiating table with Russia, unless Russia will be ready to at least return to the borders on February 23. In addition, all experts directly point out: without winning now – the Russian army will go on the offensive in a couple of years, and therefore leave it a bridgehead in the form of Donbass – is a bad idea.

The success of the Ukrainian army in the south does not add credibility to these predictions. According to unconfirmed data, the Ukrainian army has had considerable success in the counteroffensive in Kherson. And Mykolaiv continues to hold on. Moreover, the major general Dmitry Marchenko who directed defense of the Mykolaiv region declared that having received the weapon from the western partners the Ukrainian army will release the south by the end of summer. And hit the Crimean bridge to cut off supply routes for the Russian army.

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Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kharkiv region:

  • Due to shelling by cluster munitions, 3 private houses were destroyed.
  • […]

Sumy region:

  • Russian troops shelled the border areas of Shalyhyne community Shostka district from the territory of the Russian Federation. At 07:30, 8 explosions of mortar shells were recorded. At 8:30 a.m, Russian troops fired two grenade shells at a civilian car in Ukraine.
  • Russian troops shelled the border areas of the Sumy region from the territory of the Russian Federation. In the afternoon, the territory of Nova Sloboda community in Konotop district was shelled from mortars and artillery twice. At ~14:00, single shots were fired at the territory of Bilopillya community Sumy district and the territory of the Bachivs’k village of Shostka district. 
  • […]

Zaporizhzhya region:

  • During the day, 42 reports about the destruction of residential buildings (apartments) and civilian infrastructure were recorded. Hulaypilske, Charivne were shelled from the MLRS Grad. Charivne and Olhivske were shelled from tanks.
  • As a result of the shelling, private houses were damaged. The input and distribution gas pipelines were damaged.
  • […]

Luhansk region:

  • Day and night, the Russian army carried out strikes on the settlements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk using cannon artillery, MLRS and mortars. There were also shelling of Pavlohrad, Synetskyi, Bilohorivka, Borivske, Metolkine, Bila Hora, Hirske, Vovchoiarivka, Novoivanivka. As a result of the shelling in Severodonetsk, the production facilities of the Azot and Fiberglass plants and the former measurement plant were damaged. The use of army aviation was also recorded in the Bila Hora area. During the day, the destruction of 33 residential buildings was recorded, the largest number in Hirske – 12 houses.
  • […]

Chernihiv region:

  • Russian troops shelled the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of the Leonivka border village in Semenivka district.
  • […]

Mykolaiv region:

  • Russiean troops shelled the Kotlyareve village in Shevchenkove community, Mykolayiv district twice during the day – at night and in the morning. As a result of the morning shelling, an outbuilding and a garage caught fire.

In the Voznesensk district, Russian troops conducted three missile attacks on the Prybuzhany community at night. Ukrainian air defense shot down at least 3 missiles and a helicopter.

  • As a result of Russian shelling, a shell hit a 4-storey residential building, and apartments on three floors were destroyed. A civilian was wounded.
  • In the Bashtanka district, Russian troops shelled the Shyroke community. Farm warehouses were destroyed. The shelling of the Bereznehuvate community also continued.
  • […]

Donetsk region:

  • The Russian army shelled the city. The infrastructure facilities were damaged . At least 14 private residential buildings, a weather station, an enterprise of the agro-industrial company APK-Invest, where 30 animals died, and also the building of the roofing materials manufacturer Skhid-Profil, were destroyed and damaged. 2 people were injured. A train with humanitarian aid from the World Central Kitchen organization for residents of the Donetsk region also came under fire, 1 wagon was damaged. The food was intended for the evacuated residents of Mariupol
  • […]

Dnipropetrovsk region:

  • As a result of missile shelling a construction company was damaged, the second missile hit a country house cooperative, 4 houses and 5 garages were damaged
  • […]

This was the free part of the military brief

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War in Ukraine / June 14