NASA has updated its estimate of the likelihood that asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with Earth. According to the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the chance of an impact in 2032 is now 3.1%, or about 1 in 32.
- This is the highest risk rate in the history of the agency's observations, The Independent notes.
- Previous calculations estimated the probability of a collision at 2.6%, and at the end of January - only 1%.
- The updated data is based on more detailed observations that have significantly narrowed the possible range of the asteroid's trajectory.
"City Killer" predicted trajectory
Although most calculations still indicate that an impact is unlikely, scientists have identified a potential risk zone - regions with more than 100 million people.
2024 YR4 is classified as a "City Killer". It does not pose a threat to the entire planet, but it is still powerful enough to cause large-scale destruction in a city.
Scientists have calculated that the asteroid's collision risk corridor runs east of the Pacific Ocean, across South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. This trajectory includes some of the world's most densely populated cities, such as Bogota, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Dhaka.
"City Killer" possible impact showcase
NASA currently rates 2024 YR4 at 3 on the Turin Hazard Scale, which takes into account both the likelihood of a collision and its possible consequences. Although the maximum level on the scale is 10, the size of YR4 means it can only reach 8, as level 10 implies a global catastrophe similar to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.
Scientists estimate that the size of the asteroid could be between 40 and 90 meters.
The asteroid has a potential force of eight million tons in TNT equivalent, which is about 500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atom bomb.
Currently, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth and is expected to disappear from view around April. The next opportunity for detailed analysis will not come until 2028, when it may be too late.
