The Molfar team sends a daily newsletter about the war in Ukraine. The editorial staff of AIN.Capital publishes the full version of the digest. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.

Day 139: Ukraine’s economic problems 

Right now, the war in Ukraine is not only about the army and weapons, but also about the possibility of economic survival. Things are still bad: expenses have increased, and incomes have fallen sharply. Ukraine will lose up to a third of its GDP, with a monthly deficit of up to $5 billion. They are trying to cover this money with their own gold and currency reserves, hryvnia printing, bonds and foreign aid. It is still difficult with the last one.

According to available statistics, since the beginning of the war, Western partner countries, as well as international organizations and funds, have provided Ukraine with only half of the amount of aid that Ukraine needs. We are talking about $10.2 billion of the $22 billion spent during the first four months of the war. At the time of preparation of this newsletter, the news appeared that the EU did agree to the procedure for providing an additional 8 billion euros. In Ukraine, they claim that, in general, by the end of the year, they have commitments for more than $30 billion in aid in the form of grants and loans, which will help support the country’s economic activity. These funds will still not be enough, but they will cover at least part of the deficit.

The biggest problem for Ukraine is blocked logistics, which does not allow to establish exports and, accordingly, the inflow of foreign currency to Ukraine. Instead, 5 million refugees in Europe and imports in huge volumes put pressure on the hryvnia and weaken it week after week. At the same time, if at the beginning of the war the activities of the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Ukraine were supported and praised, as of today, the economic community is calling on officials to take more radical actions and decisive steps. In particular, to detach the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar, which differs from the real rate by 30%.

Russia, on the other hand, literally bathes in money. Thanks to high energy prices, the inflow of foreign currency into the country is a record for the entire time of its history. And it will not become smaller. The country’s trade balance surplus is $138 billion for the first half of the year: this is more than for the entire year of 2021.

Latest investigations of the Molfar team:

  1. ZelenskiyNFT: is it a skam project created by the russians? We have the evidence.
  2. Fact-checking of a missile strike on the city of Kremenchuk: why was it a planned terrorist attack?
  3. VICE: Meet the US ‘Journalist’ Helping Spread the Kremlin’s Propaganda
  4. Collaborators of the city of Kupyansk: a corrupt military person and child vandals
  5. Days of EU Integration in Ukraine’s Parliament

Airstrike, missile and MRL damage

Kharkiv region:

  • The Russian military shelled the Slobidskyi and Osnovianskyi districts of Kharkiv. One of the rockets hit a six-story building, which caused its partial destruction. A 74-year-old resident of the house was wounded. The second rocket hit the school grounds, the building was damaged
  • Russian troops shelled the residential areas of the Kyivskyi and Saltivka districts of Kharkiv from the Uragan MLRS. Several shells hit the yards of private houses, garages, and cars were destroyed, and several fires broke out. 5 multi-storey buildings, enterprise buildings, and vehicles were damaged.

Also, the shells hit the shopping center, the facades of the shops were damaged in it, glass showcases and windows were broken, and the hall of the grocery market was also damaged.

Also, one of the missiles fell near the tire shop, killing the driver who was driving nearby at the time of the hit. Also, 8 employees were injured by glass fragments. Nearby houses were also damaged.

There are 6 killed and 31 wounded, 2 of whom are children aged 4 and 16, they are in moderate condition. The wounded mostly have shrapnel wounds. 2 dead – father and son – were in the car, which was hit by a direct hit by a rocket. A security guard was killed at the mall.

In the Saltivka district, 10 fires were recorded as a result of the shelling, in Kyivskyi and Bogodukhivskyi one each.

Sumy region:

  • The territory of the village was shelled by Russian troops. 20 explosions were recorded.
  • […]

Zaporizhzhya region:

  • During the day, 38 reports of damage were received as a result of the shelling by Russian troops. Mala Tokmachka, Preobrazhenka, Hulaipole, Orichiv were shelled.
  • […]

Mykolaiv region:

  • The Russian army fired 6 missiles at the city. The industrial infrastructure and the surroundings of the city in the Kulbakino area were shelled. 1 person was injured.
  • […]

Odessa region:

  • 7 missiles were launched from the Su-27, Su-30 and Su-35 aircraft over the Black Sea, resort village was shelled. One of the missiles hit a residential house in one of the shoreline villages. 5 other houses were damaged by the blast wave within a radius of 1 km the walls, roofs and windows were damaged. Also, a recreation center located nearby was damaged. Doors and windows were broken in 6 rooms, furniture was damaged, and the veranda was also damaged by the shock wave.
  • […]

Donetsk region:

  • As a result of the shelling by the Russian troops, the “Metalurh” sports complex was destroyed. The stands and under-tribune premises were destroyed, the visor and the building of the track and field arena were damaged. The lawn of the football field and running tracks were badly damaged.
  • […]

Dnipropetrovsk region:

  • As a result of the shelling, residential buildings and power lines were destroyed. In Pershe Travnya, a combine harvester and 75 solar panels were damaged. Cluster munitions were used during the shelling.
  • […]

This was the free part of the military brief

Read the full text + all archives in the paid version.

In two weeks, the subscription price will be $50/month, subscribe now for $30. We give half of the money for the humanitarian needs of Ukrainians.

In a paid version:

  • Civilian casualties
  • Occupant’s casualties (est. from Ukrainian General Staff)
  • War crimes in a de-ocupied territories
  • Alternative loss estimates
  • Data archive.
  • Analytical charts: occupant losses, chart with known air raid alerts by region, known child deaths, diagram of known damage for Ukrainian infrastructure.
War in Ukraine / July 8-10